M.K.B. Lüdeke G. Petschel-Held1
All the major problems of currently ongoing development are embedded in a complex network of causes and consequences. In order to analyse these interdependencies, it is necessary to use a consistent and carefully formulated framework. As the basis of such a framework, it is necessary to employ an appropriate vocabulary which contains well defined descriptions and definitions of the major elements involved. A set of trends of global change is suggested here which represents the most relevant aspects of global change. This catalogue was formulated with the help of expert knowledge and currently consists of about 80 anthropogenic and natural trends (WBGU 1996).
On the basis of these trends, it is possible to identify interrelationships between the major elements of global change. If one tries to do that, one realizes rather quickly that most of the interrelations are regionally dependent. For example, the cause-effect complex of degradation of the natural environment, due to agricultural land-use in Sub-Saharan Africa, is completely different from the corresponding complex of degradation in Western Europe or North America. In the first case, the poor rural population is forced to use marginal natural resources (soil, fuel wood, etc.) due to a lack of alternatives. On the other hand, agriculture in the developed world is highly intensified in terms of fertilizer input, use of machinery, etc. Therefore, it would not be appropriate to simultaneously analyse both networks of interrelation in a single complex. At the other end of the functional 'resolution scale' stands an overview of global change on the basis of all the regional particularities. This is not only futile but also unnecessary. The processes mentioned, leading to serious environmental degradation in the Sahel region, are similar in nature to the processes in many other regions of the world (e.g. parts of Southwestern Asia or Northeastern Brazil). These processes represent an archetypal pattern of human- environment interactions. Because this pattern involves serious harm for human beings and nature, the medical term 'syndrome' is used (e.g. the Sahel Syndrome).
On the basis of expert knowledge, a set of 16 syndromes has been formulated to describe global change in a sufficient and appropriate way. These syndromes are listed below. The list contains patterns -or as one might want to call them, 'clinical pictures'. These describe the mechanisms of agricultural land use as well as patterns for urbanization and industrialization processes, and environmental degradation due to waste disposal or exploitation of resources.
SYNDROMES OF GLOBAL CHANGE
Sahel Syndrome: Overcultivation of marginal land
Overexploitation Syndrome: Overexploitation of natural ecosystems
Rural Exodus Syndrome: Environmental degradation through abandonment of traditional
agricultural practices
Dust Bowl Syndrome: Non-sustainable agro-industrial use of soils and bodies of
water
Katanga Syndrome: Environmental degradation through depletion of non- renewable
resources
Mass Tourism Syndrome: Development and destruction of nature for recreational ends
Scorched Earth Syndrome: Environmental destruction through war and military action
Aral Sea Syndrome: Environmental damage of natural landscapes as a result of large-
scale projects
Green Revolution Syndrome: Environmental degradation through the introduction of
inappropriate farming methods
Asian Tigers Syndrome: Disregard for environmental standards in the course of rapid
economic growth
Favela Syndrome: Environmental degradation through uncontrolled urban growth
Urban Sprawl Syndrome: Destruction of landscapes through planned expansion of urban
infrastructures
Disaster Syndrome: Singular anthropogenic environmental disasters with long- term
impacts
Smokestack Syndrome: Environmental degradation through large-scale diffusion of
persistent substances
Waste Dumping Syndrome: Environmental degradation through controlled and
uncontrolled disposal of waste
Contaminated Land Syndrome: Local contamination of environmental assets at
industrial locations
Syndromes are intersectoral and therefore require interdisciplinary research. They represent endangering patterns for humans and nature; they exhibit global relevance; and they are individual dynamic objects of global change.
Although the concept is rather intuitive, its operationalization requires further elaboration and especially has to be founded on real data, either quantitative (poverty, climate, etc.) or qualitative (expert evaluation) (see Box 2A). The concept is useful only if the 'measurement' of the syndromes traces the history of the most relevant problems. Therefore it is necessary to identify syndromes in their geographical and, as far as possible, historical context. On the other hand, this measurement is exactly what is required with respect to indicators for unsustainable development, since it would result in an atlas of major dynamic patterns of critical human-environment interactions. The resulting indicators are systemic because they involve a large amount of knowledge about interdependencies within each syndrome. These indicators, showing the intensity of a syndrome, not only indicate the status quo but also its entire dynamic evolution. In medical terms, they indicate the clinical picture and its probable short-term development.
In order to provide sufficient information for a long-term policy for sustainable development, it is necessary not only to point out the presence of a syndrome, but also the vulnerability of regions to syndrome specific mechanisms. For example, (semi)-arid regions with high climatic variability and a poor and marginalized rural population are, in general, prone to the processes specific to the Sahel Syndrome. Therefore, an indicator for general natural and socio-economic structures should be developed to determine the proneness of a region to a specific syndrome. This requires the identification of the conditions under which the syndrome specific mechanisms might become active. Again, in terms of medicine, this disposition is the opposite of immunity to a certain syndrome.
NOTES
1 This work is done in close cooperation between the BMBF Projects 01 LG 9401-03, the PIK Core Project QUESTIONS and the German Advisory Council on Global Change. This paper summarizes the recent results of this cooperation.
REFERENCES
WBGU (1996) German Advisory Council of Global Change. World in Transition: The Research Challenge. Annual Report 1996, Springer Verlag, Berlin. (forthcoming)